There's a few attempts on the internet at measuring the surplus of lawyers--qualified lawyers for whom there's no jobs available. My last post compared the 1.2 million individuals carrying law licenses to the 700,000-or-so jobs available. I'm still working on how the BLS and the Census actually define "lawyer" and "job" and determine whether someone is a lawyer or has a lawyer job under these measures if he is a solo practitioner or a partner in a firm.
There's an interesting model of lawyer surplus created by an outfit called EMSI. They figure that there will be about 26,000 openings for lawyers every year from 2010-2015, based on a calculation in their proprietary software. Obviously, this is far fewer than the number of J.D.s that law schools graduate each year, 44,000. They also have state-by-state estimates which compare the number of jobs that may be open in each state to the number of bar-passers. The comparison is not favorable in almost any state.
It also compares the number of jobs available to the number of law school graduates each year in each state. This is kind of quaint, assuming that people will be more connected to the state where they went to school than they, in reality, probably are.
There's an interesting model of lawyer surplus created by an outfit called EMSI. They figure that there will be about 26,000 openings for lawyers every year from 2010-2015, based on a calculation in their proprietary software. Obviously, this is far fewer than the number of J.D.s that law schools graduate each year, 44,000. They also have state-by-state estimates which compare the number of jobs that may be open in each state to the number of bar-passers. The comparison is not favorable in almost any state.
It also compares the number of jobs available to the number of law school graduates each year in each state. This is kind of quaint, assuming that people will be more connected to the state where they went to school than they, in reality, probably are.
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